Naomi: A New Modelling Tool for Estimating HIV Epidemic Indicators at the District Level in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa

HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly, but not dramatically, to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among 15-24-year-old women and 20-29-year-old men, supporting focused prevention in these groups. But 40-60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages.