Our research focuses on:

  • Epidemiologic patterns and HIV transmission dynamics.
  • Statistical and mathematical modelling approaches to synthesise surveillance and service delivery data.
  • Demographic impacts of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Scientific guidance on global HIV epidemiology and modelling.
  • Non-technical software to interpret HIV data.

We are based in the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London.

Recent Publications

Naomi: A New Modelling Tool for Estimating HIV Epidemic Indicators at the District Level in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa

HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly, but not dramatically, to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among 15-24-year-old women and 20-29-year-old men, supporting focused prevention in these groups. But 40-60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages.